The G7 summit in Évian, France marks a further step in the collapse of the postwar capitalist order and the slide now towards a Third World War. Never before have tensions between the participants—the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Canada—been so acute. The heads of state and government who traveled to the summit are sitting on an explosive social powder keg in their own countries.
Trump’s threats to seize Canada and Greenland, his trade tariffs against the European Union and other so-called partners, his unilateral actions in negotiations with Russia and in the recent war against Iran have reinforced the view in European capitals that the US “can no longer be relied upon” as an ally. The US is no longer seen as a partner but as a threat.
The European powers are responding by pouring vast sums into war and rearmament in order to pursue their imperialist interests independently of—and, if necessary, against—the US. They are passing on the costs to the population through cuts to social services, thereby pushing social tensions, fueled by the war with Iran, inflation and the economic slump, to the breaking point.
In the war in Ukraine, Europe is pressing to have a seat at the table in the negotiations with Russia, which have so far been led unilaterally by the US. Now that the US has suspended its financial aid to Ukraine, the war is being financed predominantly by Europe. Germany alone has spent more than €94 billion on support for Ukraine since the start of the war, and the European Union has recently released new loans totaling €90 billion to enable Ukraine to continue the war.
The aim of the European powers and Canada is to prevent any concessions to Russia. They insist on escalating the war, thereby consciously accepting the risk of a nuclear escalation. G7 host Emmanuel Macron invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the summit; Zelensky’s government has recently been deliberately targeting energy facilities deep within Russia and near the major cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, provoking sharp Russian reactions.
The war in Ukraine was the first item on the summit’s agenda. No concrete decisions were taken on the matter. It was agreed to “increase the pressure on Russia,” which was seen as a concession by Trump to Europe’s policy of escalation. Trump also held out the prospect of reinstating the sanctions against Russian oil which were lifted during the war against Iran. Three days ago, the UK seized a tanker carrying Russian oil in the English Channel.
The second topic of the summit was the Iran war. On Monday, Trump announced the conclusion of a framework agreement with Tehran under which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and hostilities would cease. Over the next 60 days, an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme and other contentious issues is to be negotiated.
The text of the agreement, which is due to be signed in Lucerne on Friday, has not yet been made public, not even to the summit participants. Nor is it clear how durable it is. What is clear is that it represents a debacle for American imperialism. Trump has failed to achieve any of his self-declared war aims—regime change, the destruction of Iran’s weapons arsenal and a complete halt to its nuclear programme. Instead, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated the global economic crisis and undermined US authority.
The European powers, which congratulated Trump on the agreement, are attempting to exploit the situation to their advantage. They had kept their distance from the war because they considered it poorly prepared and feared they would be left out of the spoils. Trump neither consulted nor informed them beforehand.
However, they consistently supported Trump’s aim of subjugating Iran and, with Israel’s help, bombing the Middle East back into colonial subjugation. Critics of Israel and its war crimes are suppressed and persecuted in all G7 countries. Nor have the G7 leaders condemned the war on Iran. Four days after the war began, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was even sitting in the Oval Office, where he assured Trump of his support in front of rolling cameras.
Now the European powers are exploiting the American debacle to strengthen their own military presence in the region. News of the US-Iran framework agreement had barely been made public when Merz, Macron, the UK’s Keir Starmer and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni announced in a joint statement their readiness to secure merchant shipping and clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz through a military operation. The relevant warships, including the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, have long been on standby in order to reach the operational area within two to three days.
Macron also invited Egypt and two Gulf states, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, to Évian. They are expected to help strengthen European influence in the region.
The US-Iran agreement is—regardless of its immediate outcome—merely one stage in an escalating struggle for the Middle East and for the redivision of the world among the major imperialist powers. In Évian, Trump himself once again threatened Iran with total annihilation should it not completely renounce the construction or acquisition of nuclear weapons—a barely veiled threat to deploy US nuclear weapons.
The third key topic of the summit, which was still under discussion at the time of writing, concerned economic issues.
Here, the transatlantic trade war continues to rage. Just before his departure, Trump threatened France with 100 percent tariffs on wine unless it withdrew its tax on major American digital corporations. Macron himself invited more than a dozen CEOs of leading digital and AI companies to Évian, including Sam Altman (OpenAI), Alex Wang (Meta, Scale AI) and Dario Amodei (Anthropic).
By contrast, a consensus began to emerge regarding the stance towards China. Here, all summit participants agreed to tackle the growing trade deficit with the rising economic power. Militarily, too, the US, Japan and Europe continue to work closely together on preparations for war against China.
Tensions between the US and Europe have become so acute that it was already regarded as a success that Trump attended the summit at all and did not leave early, as he did at the last G7 summit in Canada. From the outset, a joint final communique was not planned.
However, the European powers’ military and economic dependence on the US remains so considerable that they are seeking to prevent a complete break before they have strengthened their military capabilities. Host Macron therefore spared no effort to create an artificial façade of harmony and to suppress any external disruption.
He treated Trump like a stubborn child, who had to be kept happy with gifts. He postponed the summit by a day so that Trump could take part in the military parade in front of the White House to mark his 80th birthday, and he invited the US president to an exclusive dinner amid the historic splendour and pomp of the Palace of Versailles at the close of the summit on Wednesday evening.
The official occasion was the 250th anniversary of the United States’ independence. It was at Versailles in 1783 that the peace treaty was signed, officially ending the American War of Independence and sealing the US’s independence from Great Britain.
Macron, however, preferred not to remind Trump of another date closely linked to Versailles—October 5 and 6, 1789, the “March of the Market Women to Versailles.” On that date, the people of Paris forced King Louis XVI, who lived a life of unspeakable luxury with his entourage, to move to Paris, where he was later beheaded.
The spectre of revolution hung over the Évian summit as well. The gulf between the mass of the population and the super-rich, who dictate policy in all G7 nations, is now giving rise to massive resistance, protests and strikes. The G7 leaders are so unpopular that they are on the verge of being toppled in a party leadership election (Starmer), no longer have a parliamentary majority (Macron) or, according to polls, would not be re-elected (Merz). They are responding by beefing up the state apparatus and trampling on democratic rights. Trump is merely the forerunner in this regard.
Macron demonstrated this in Évian. To banish all political opposition, he transformed the tranquil spa town on Lake Geneva, set against the backdrop of the Alps, into a high-security zone. More than 13,000 police officers were mobilised to protect the heads of state and government, supported by soldiers, customs officers, firefighters and a large contingent of boats, drones, motorbike patrols and dog units. Rail and boat services to Évian were completely suspended.
As Macron had banned all protests, the demonstrations had to be moved to Geneva, 40 kilometres (25 miles) away, where Switzerland more than lived up to its reputation as not only the banker but also the policeman of the international financial oligarchy.
It deployed over 7,000 security personnel, supported by 4,000 soldiers from the Swiss Army, to crack down on a broad alliance of G7 opponents who were demonstrating against the summit on Monday. Local media and authorities stoked fears of riots, while luxury shops and banks barricaded their shopfronts.
Ultimately, the police violently dispersed the largely peaceful demonstration—which, according to the organisers, involved 60,000 people, while police put the figure at 20,000—using tear gas and water cannon. They kettled around 200 demonstrators, recorded the personal details of all those present and arrested several people.
The Évian summit serves as a microcosm of the state of the world today: a ruling elite entrenched in a high-security compound, planning new wars and attacks on social programmes; growing opposition coming up against the concentrated might of the state.
No government and no party that defends capitalism will halt this slide towards war and dictatorship. Only an independent movement of the international working class, fighting for a socialist programme, can do so. The struggle against war, dictatorship and fascism is inextricably linked to the expropriation of the oligarchs and the reorganisation of society on a socialist basis.